October 2025 TNI CIO Forum – Global Regime Change Summary

The October 2025 TNI CIO Forum summary has the TNI team (not the forum CIOs)  concluding that, despite profound geopolitical, technological, and macroeconomic shifts, most institutions are not making major changes to overall investment strategy, but instead, are returning to disciplined execution. Key themes include heightened national security priorities, supply chain reshoring, AI- and defence-led capex, and a structural rise in real interest rates that has altered stock–bond correlations and raised stagflation risk. Market concentration—driven by the “Mag 7”—is historically high, prompting cautious de-risking rather than wholesale rotation from growth to value.

Discussions highlighted skepticism about future private equity and venture capital premiums due to capital oversupply, weak exits, and secondary market discounts, though many still underwrite PE to mid-teens returns with greater emphasis on absolute top-ranked managers and specialized strategies. Overall, TNI supports maintaining asset allocation flexibility, modestly reducing illiquidity at the margin, and selectively adopting elements of a Total Portfolio or Dynamic Asset Allocation approach rather than pursuing a full strategic reset.